برآورد شاخص ها و مولفه های جهانی شدن بر رشد اقتصادی ایران
محورهای موضوعی : اقتصادی
صمد مصطفوی
1
,
امیرعلی فرهنگ
2
*
,
ابراهیم عبدی
3
1 - گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران
2 - استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه پیام نور
3 - استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران
کلید واژه: شاخص جهانی شدن KOF , جهانی شدن, رشد اقتصادی, موجک, ایران.,
چکیده مقاله :
جهانی شدن فرآیند پیچیده ای است که از مرزهای ملی فراتر می رود، اقتصادهای ملی، فرهنگ ها، فناوری ها و در نتیجه ابعاد اقتصادی، اجتماعی و سیاسی را گرد هم می آورد که وابستگی متقابل بین کشورها را افزایش می دهد.این تحقیق با استفاده از شاخص جهانی شدن و مؤلفه های آن (شاخص های جهانی شدن اقتصادی، اجتماعی و سیاسی) تأثیر جهانی شدن بر رشد اقتصادی ایران را در بازه زمانی 1979 تا 2021 بررسی می کند. از طریق فرایند تجزیه و تحلیل نتایج به دست آمده از بررسی یافته هاي سريهاي زمانی شاخص جهانی شدن و رشد اقتصادی مشخص می¬شود که، ابتدائاً ، یک وابستگی نسبتاً بالایی در فرکانسهاي بالا در طول میانی دوره مورد بررسی بین این دو شاخص وجود دارد و دو شاخص هم فاز (همجهت) هستند و رشد اقتصادی علت افزایش جهانی شدن است و رشد اقتصادی شاخص پیشرو است همچنین در میان مدت تا سال 2000 رشد اقتصادی تاثیر غیر هم فازی برای جهانی شدن داشته است و با کاهش فرکانس( افزایش طول دوره سرمایه گذاري) به شدت میزان وابستگی بین این دو شاخص افزوده شده است و جهانی شدن به عنوان شاخص پیشرو باعث افزایش رشد اقتصادی کشور ایران شده است.پس در کوتاه مدت اثر متقدم بودن رشد اقتصادی و در بلند مدت اثر متقدم بودن جهانی سازی مشخص است.
Globalization is a complex process that transcends national borders, bringing together national economies, cultures, technologies, and thus economic, social, and political dimensions that increase interdependence between countries. This research aims to The assessment of short-term, medium-term and long-term effects using the globalization index and its components (economic, social and political globalization indices) examines the impact of globalization on Iran's economic growth in the period from 1979 to 2021. The wavelet method is used to analyze the data. Wavelet transform is a very effective tool for dealing with time series (signals) that have unknown properties. The coefficients extracted from the wavelets show a part of the time series in different scales. Through the process of analyzing the results obtained from the examination of the findings of the time series of the globalization and economic growth index, it is clear that, first, there is a relatively high dependence at high frequencies during the middle period of the study period between these two indices and The two indicators are in the same phase and economic growth is the cause of increasing globalization and economic growth is the leading indicator. Also, in the medium term until the year 2000, economic growth had an out-of-phase effect on globalization, and with the decrease in frequency (increasing the length of the investment period)) the degree of dependence between these two indicators has been greatly increased and globalization as a leading indicator has increased the economic growth of Iran. In the short term, the effect of the advance of economic growth and in the long term the effect of the advance of globalization is clear.
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