عوامل موثر بر تولید و عرضه مسکن تحت تاثیر نرخ ارز و تحریم
محورهای موضوعی :مهرداد محمودیان زمانه 1 * , محمد جعفری 2 , مرتضی عزتی 3
1 - دکتری اقتصاد، دانشگاه لرستان
2 - دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد، ایران
3 - پژوهشکده اقتصاد/تربیت مدرس
کلید واژه: کلید واژه¬ها: تولید, عرضه مسکن, ارز, تحریم اقتصادی, تورم,
چکیده مقاله :
بخش مسکن در بسیاري از کشورها از جمله ایران یکی از ارکان اصلی اقتصاد است. این بخش نقش مهمی در توسعه اقتصادي، اشتغال و سطح رفاه خانوارها دارد. در پی تحریم¬ها، با محدودیت در بخش خارجی، نرخ ارز تغییر کرده و در پی آن بازار دیگر دارایی¬ها از جمله عرضه مسکن تغییر می¬کنند. ارتباط متقابل میان بازار مسکن، نرخ ارز و تحریم¬های اقتصادی باعث شده، به بررسی عوامل موثر بر تولید و عرضه مسکن تحت تاثیر نرخ ارز و تحریم بپردازیم. روش مورد استفاده برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده¬ها رگرسیون به ظاهر نامرتبط (SUR) است. مدل با داده-های فصلی استانی سال¬های 1390 تا 1400 برآورد شده است. یافته¬های این پژوهش نشان می-دهد تولید ناخالص داخلی، قیمت مسکن و تعداد پروانه¬های ساختمانی صادرشده بر عرضه مسکن اثر مثبت و نرخ ارز و تحریم برعرضه مسکن اثر منفی داشته¬اند. تورم و تحریم، نرخ ارز را افزایش و صادرات، نرخ ارز را کاهش داده است. بر این پایه تحریم هم اثر مستقیم و هم از مسیر نرخ ارز اثر غیر مستقیم بر کاهش عرضه مسکن داشته است.
Mehrdad Mahmoudian Zamaneh Mohammad Jafari Morteza Ezzati Abstract Aim and Introduction: The housing sector is one of the main pillars of the economy in many countries, including Iran. This sector plays an important role in economic development, employment and the welfare level of households. As a result of the sanctions, with restrictions on the foreign sector, the exchange rate changes, and as a result, the market of other assets, including the supply of housing, changes. The interrelationship between the housing market, exchange rate and economic sanctions has made us investigate the factors affecting the production and supply of housing under the influence of the exchange rate and sanction. The method used for data analysis is the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR). The findings of this research show that the price of housing, the number of issued building permits and inflation have a positive effect on the supply of housing, and the exchange rate, sanctions and the price of construction materials have a negative effect on the supply of housing. Imports and embargoes have increased the exchange rate and exports have decreased the exchange rate. On this basis, the embargo has both a direct effect and an indirect effect on the reduction of housing supply through the exchange rate. Methodology: Different methods can be used to estimate the model of the equations of this study, such as single equation methods or methods of solving simultaneous equations, whose estimates are different. The most common methods of solving simultaneous equations are the two-stage and three-stage least squares regression methods, as well as apparently unrelated regression, which is used when there is a relationship between the error part of the equations Or there is a simultaneous correlation. The method discussed in this research is the model of apparently unrelated regressions (SUR) or apparently unrelated regression equations (SURE), which was proposed in 1962 in econometrics. It is used in this review. Findings: The findings of this research show that housing price variables, the number of building permits issued, and inflation have a positive effect on the housing supply, while the exchange rate, sanctions, and the price of construction materials have a negative effect on the housing supply. Imports and embargoes have increased the exchange rate and exports have decreased the exchange rate. On this basis, the embargo has both a direct effect and an indirect effect through the exchange rate on the reduction of housing supply. Discussion and Conclusion: In the preliminary results, the estimate for the first equation of the average effect of labor wages as a part of the production cost was not significant. But in estimates, the effect of the price of construction materials is significant. This variable was removed from the model. It can be said that one of the reasons for the non-significance of the wage variable is its low relative growth compared to the growth of housing prices and the growth of construction materials. On the other hand, the share of wages in housing construction costs is much lower than the costs of materials and other costs. This causes the wage rate in Iran to be less effective in housing supply. It can also be said that an increase in the provincial GDP, housing prices and the number of building permits issued increases housing supply. The results of the second equation show that exports, imports, sanctions index, liquidity volume and provincial gross domestic product explain 99% of exchange rate changes. It is worth mentioning that the increase in exports and the sanctions index increases the exchange rate, but with the increase in imports, the exchange rate decreases, which shows the negative relationship between the exchange rate and imports. Since the exchange rate increases under the influence of the sanctions and the exchange rate has a negative effect on the housing supply, it can be said that the sanctions have a direct effect on the economic activities of supply and demand due to the disruption of security, certainty and economic stability. Housing has an effect on the supply of housing due to the change in the exchange rate.
- Abolhasani, A. Ebrahimi, I. Pour Kazemi, M. H. & Bahrami Nia, E (2017). "The Effect of Oil Shocks and Monetary Shocks on Production and Inflation in The Housing Sector of The Iranian Economy: New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach", Economic Growth and Development Research, 25:109-128.(In Persian).
- Abolhasani, P. (2021). "Estimating and comparing the utilization of production capacity in Iran's factory industries in the private and public sectors, master's thesis", Allameh Tabatabai University.(In Persian).
- Alavi, S. y. (2016). "Typology of unilateral US sanctions against Iran during Obama's presidency", Islamic Revolution Studies Quarterly, 45:51-70.(In Persian).
- Al-Mawali, N. Hasim, H. M. & Al-Busaidi, K. (2016). Modelling the impact of the oil sector on the economy of sultanate of Oman. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 6(1), 120-127.
- Ashraf Ganjoui, R. & iranmanesh, S. (2022). "Extraction of a quantitative index of economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran", Econometric modeling, 26:67-94.(In Persian).
- Aslani, P. & Asdalahi, A. (2015). "Evaluation of the impact of economic sanctions channels on housing prices in Iran", Housing Economics Quarterly, 52: 107-134.(In Persian).
- Badcock, B. (2018). "Urban Planning and the Housing Market". International Perspectives for Policy and Practice.
- Baniasadi, M. (2022). "An analytical look at the effect of economic sanctions on Iran's trade in agricultural products", Quarterly Journal of Development Strategy, 69:181-213.(In Persian).
- Bastin, H. Thabet, S.A. Salehi, M. & Hosseinpour, A. (2019). "Comparative analysis of monetary policy transmission channels in Iran's economic sanctions: quantile regression approach". Applied Economics, 34 and 35:31-46.(In Persian).
- Blackley, D. M. (1999). "The long-run elasticity of new housing supply in the United States: Empirical evidence for 1950 to 1994"; Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 18: 25-42.
- Caruso, Raul, 2003, The impact of international economic sanctions on trade: An empirical analysis. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 9 (2).
- Cullingworth, John Barry. (1960), 5 BMC Public Health Housing Needs and Planning Policy. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul, Ltd.
- Dizaji, S. F. & Farzanegan, M. R. (2018). "Do sanctions reduce the military spending in Iran? " (No. 31-2018). MAGKS Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics.
- Dizaji, S. F. & Farzanegan, M. R. (2021). "Do sanctions constrain military spending of Iran? ". Defence and Peace Economics, 32(2), 125-150.
- Eyler, R. (2007). Economic sanctions: international policy and political economy at work: Springer.
- Ezzati, M. & Salmani, U. (2015). "Estimating the effect of economic sanctions on Iran's economic growth", Basij Strategic Studies Quarterly, 67, 69.(In Persian).
- Ezzati, M. & Salmani, U. (2017). "The welfare effects of economic sanctions on final consumers of goods and services in Iran", International Journal of Environmental And Science Education, 7 (2) .(In Persian).
- Ezzati, M. (2016). "Analyzing Direct and Indirect Effects of Economic Sanctions on I. R. Iran Economic Growth: Focusing on the External Sector of the Economy", Open Journal of Marine Science, 6: 457-471.(In Persian).
- Ezzati, M. Heydari, H. & Moridi, p. (2020). "Investigating the effect of economic sanctions on the production and employment of Iran's industrial sector", Strategic and Macro Policy Quarterly, 1: 38-65.(In Persian).
- Ezzati, M. kazemi Mehrabadi, A. (2017). "The Effect of Economic Sanctions from the Banking Channels (Monetary) On the Industrial Production of Iran", International Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11(3): 801-809.(In Persian).
- Ezzati, Morteza.; Heydari, Hassan., & Moridi, Parvin. (2019). Investigating the effect of economic sanctions on the production and employment of Iran's industrial sector. Strategic and Macro Policy Quarterly, 8(29), 38-65.(in Persian).
- Fazalali, Z. Portaheri, M. & Ruknuddin Iftekhari, A. (2018). "Survey of Rural Housing Changes in Mazandaran Province", Human Geography Research Quarterly, 104:354-339.(In Persian).
- Gholizadeh, A. A. & Ghanbari, S. (2017). "Investigating the effect of housing assets on household consumption expenditure components in Iran", Housing Economics Quarterly, 61:51-76.(In Persian).
- Gholizadeh, A. A. Manochehri, S & Jafariseresht, D. (2022), "Time-varying effects of factors influencing speculation in Iran's housing market: state-space models", Econometric Modeling Quarterly, 28:119-142.(In Persian).
- Golliard, M. M. (2013). Economic Sanctions: Embargo on Stage. Theory and mpirical Evidence. Ph.D. thesis. Tampere University. Finland.
- Greene, W. H. (2002). Econometric Analysis (5th Ed.). Prentice Hall. New Jersey. ISBN: 0-13-066189- 9.
- Ha, L.T. & Hoang, D.P. (2021). Economic Sanctions and Environmental Performance: The Moderating Role of Financial Market Development and Institutional Quality, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29, 19657-19678.
- Ha, L.T. & Nam, P.X. (2021). An Investigation of Relationship between Global Economic Sanction and Life Expectancy: Do Financial and Institutional System Matter?, Development Studies Research, 9.
- HasanGoodarzi, S. & Armanmehr, M. R.(2019). "Market analysis and forecasting of housing prices in Tehran".
- Iranian economic issues, 2:79-103.(In Persian).
- Hatfi-Majumard, M. & Mehrara, M. (2020), "Bubble migration between currency market and housing market", Economic Research Quarterly, 77: 67-102.(In Persian).
- Hatipoglu, E. Considine, J. & AlDayel, A. (2022). Unintended Transnational Effects of Sanctions: A Global Vector Autoregression Simulation. Defence and Peace Economics, 1-17.
- Havasbeigi, F. Asgari, H. & Oshni, M. (2021). "The effect of economic sanctions on the size of the informal economy in Iran", Journal of Development and Capital, 6:1-18.(In Persian).
- Heydari, H. & Soori, A. R. (2011)". Analyzing the Relation between Bank Deposit Rates and House Prices in Iran"
- , Economic Research, 92:65-92.(In Persian).
- Housing & Urban Development (HUD) (2017). Affordable Housing. Portal.HUD.gov.
- https://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/HUD?src=/program_offices/comm_plan ning/affordablehousing/.
- Hufbauer, Gary Clyde, Jeffrey J. Schott, Kimberly Ann Elliott, & Barbara Oegg (2007). economic sanctions reconsidered, 3rd ed., Peterson institute for international economics, Washington DC.
- Iranmanesh, S. Salehi Asfiji, N. & Jalaii Esfandabadi, S. M. (2021). "Ranking of economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran using the opinion of selected activists and graduates of international economics", Majles and Strategy Quarterly, 108: 257-296.(In Persian).
- Jiboye, A. D. (2011). "Urbanization challenges and housing delivery in Nigeria: The need for an effective Policy framework for Sustainable Development". International Review of Social Sciences and Humanities, 2(1), 176-185.
- Karimi, E. Faturechi, Z. & Hasanzadeh Mahmudabad. M. (2021). "Examining the effect of time and severity of United Nations and United States sanctions on the misery index of the target countries", Economic Research Quarterly, 2: 151-180.(In Persian).
- Kazrouni, S. A. & Khazri, E. (2017), "Investigation of the effect of economic sanctions on the import of capital, intermediate and consumer goods in Iran during the period 1360-1392", Majles and Strategy Quarterly, 93:393-420.(In Persian).
- Khalili Iraghi, M. (2012). "An Introduction to Housing Economics", University of Tehran Printing and Publishing Institute.(In Persian).
- Kyomorthi, M. Ahmadi Shadmehri, M. T. Salimifar, M. & Abrishmi, H. (2019). "Investigating the effect of financial and energy sanctions on the production gap in Iran's economy", Iranian Economic Research Quarterly, 79:33-66.(In Persian).
- Laman, K. (2020). "Comparative Analysis of Financial Sanctions Against Russia And Iran". Bachelor’s Studies. Institute Department of Political Studies.DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.18654.46408.
- Laudati, D. & Pesaran, M. H. (2021). Identifying the Effects of Sanctions on the Iranian Economy Using Newspaper Coverage.
- Mahdilo, A. Abolhasani, A. & Rezaei, M. (2019), "Ranking of types of economic sanctions and estimation of sanctions risk index using fuzzy hierarchical analysis method", Quarterly Journal of Applied Economic Theories, 2:47-72.(In Persian).
- Maleki, B. (2016). "Analysis of Iran's Housing Market", Tehran, Publisher: Industrial Management rganization.(In Persian).
- Malpezzi, S.(1990). Urban Housing And Financial. Markets: Some International, Funding Communiy Initiatives, London: Earthscan
- Manzarzadeh Tamam, H. Abbaszadeh, M. R. Hesarzadeh, R. & Malek Al-Saadati, S. S. (2022). "Effects of some macroeconomic variables on the performance indicators of selected industrial companies of the Tehran Stock Exchange during the sanctions periods (before and after the JCPOA)", Monetary and Financial Economics, 24:37-60.(In Persian).
- Manzoor, D. & Mustafapour, M. (2013). "Rereading unfair sanctions: characteristics, goals and measures", Financial and Economic Policy Quarterly, 2: 21-42.(In Persian).
- Mishkin, F. (1995). "Symposium on The Monetary Transmission Mechanism". Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), 3-10.
- Moeeni, S. Sharifi, A. Mozafari Shamsi, H. & Mohammadi, V. (2021). "The Impact of Iran Oil Sanctions on the Exchange Rates: An Analysis Using Google Search Index". Iranian Economic Review, 25(3), 397-417.
- Mohebati, Y. (2018). "Investigating economic sanctions and their effect on Iran's economy", Quarterly Journal of Management and Accounting Studies, special issue, 46-63.(In Persian).
- Moradi, M. Ahangari, A. M. & Arman S. A. (2018). "Co-movement and causality between asset markets (housing market and financial assets) in the Iranian economy: a wavelet analysis approach", Iranian Journal of Applied Economic Studies, 28:163-181.(In Persian).
- Moradi, N. & Parsi, S. (2018), "Study of current issues of Iran's economy", Center for Economic Research and Studies.(In Persian).
- Murshed, S. (2020). Macroeconomic effects of trade and financial sanctions (No. 657).
- Nademi, Y., Jalili kamjoo, P., & Khochiany, R. (2018). Econometric Modeling the Impact of Sanctions on the Foreign Exchange Market and Its Transmission mechanism to macroeconomic variables Iran. Quarterly Journal of Econometric Modeling. 2(2). 61-87. [In Persian]
- Naji Maidani, A. A. Fallahi, M. A. & Zabihi, M. (2010), "Investigation of the dynamic effect of macroeconomic factors on housing price fluctuations in Iran (1369-1386)", Science and Development Journal, 31:160-186.(In Persian).
- Nazmfar, H. Eshghi, A. & Alavi, S. (2017). "Spatial Analysis of Housing Prices in Tabriz City", Modares Humanities Quarterly (Space Planning and Arrangement), 21:183-208.(In Persian).
- Nefiu, Richard (2018). "The art of sanctions, a view from inside the field, Tehran (2018): Deputy of Economic Research", Islamic Council Research Center.(In Persian).
- Pahlavani, M. Heydarian, S. & Mirjalili, S. H. (2021). “Investigating the Impact of Financial Sanctions on Income Inequality in Iran: Model (TVP-FAVAR)”. Economic policy. 13(25): 239-213.(In Persian).
- Parivar, O & hasani, M. (2017). "Evaluation of the Dynamic Relationship between Foreign Exchange Market, Stock Market and the Housing Market in Iran Using a Multivariate GARCH Model", Economics and business research ,14:17-29.(In Persian).
- Parvin, S. & Shakeri, A. & Naseri, S.(2022). "Welfare Effects of Economic Sanctions :The Case of Iran", Economic Research, 84:11-38.(In Persian).
- Pour'Abadalhan Kovich, M. Panahi, H. & Javadzadeh, L. (2020). "the effect of international sanctions on the export of Iran's industrial sub-sectors", Industrial Economics Research Quarterly, 9: 61-74.(In Persian).
- Qadri, J. & Izadi, b. (2016). "Investigating the effect of economic and social factors on housing prices in Iran (1350-1391)", Economic Quarterly, 1:73-93.(In Persian).
- Rahmani T. & Esfahani, P. (2015). "An analysis of the effect of supply and demand factors on housing prices in Iran", Housing Economics Quarterly, 55: 11-30.(In Persian).
- Rezaiee Adaryani, S. & Ahmadi, H. (2020). "Analysis and Evaluation of Quantitative and Qualitative Indicators of Housing in Isfahan Province", Environment Preparation, 49:23-44.(In Persian).
- Royin Tan, S. A. R. & Maadikhah, M. R.(2015). "The role of efficient financing in reducing the costs of providing economic housing", Housing economy, 52:11-36.(In Persian).
- Rudari, S. Tehranchian, A. M. Arabi, S. H. & Adeli, O. A. (2023). "Investigating the threshold role of sanctions on the effect of oil revenues on liquidity in Iran: new evidence from the TSVAR model", Quarterly Energy Economics Review, 76:1-27.(In Persian).
- Sadat Akhavi, S. M. & Hosseini S. Sh.(2016). "Evaluating the impact of economic sanctions on the inflation of Iran's economy", Applied economics, 21:33-50.(In Persian).
- SafarAlizadeh, I. (2020). "Analysis of quantitative and qualitative indicators of housing in Urmia city", Human Settlements Planning Studies, 15:529-544.(In Persian).
- Salehi Esfahani, J. (2020). "Iran under sanctions; The impact of sanctions on household welfare and employment", translated by Mohammad Reza Farhadipour, Iran Chamber Research Center, 1-50.(In Persian).
- Sandoghdar, R. (2018). "Investigating the effect of international sanctions on exchange rate fluctuations in Iran", Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, Semnan University.(In Persian).
- Sarzaeem, A. (2023). "A Review of Economic Policies in Iran to Confront Sanctions during Trump", Middle East studies, 1.(In Persian).
- Shakeri, A. (2016). "An Introduction to Iran's Economy", Tehran: Rafee Publications.
- Sharbati, M. Zeraatkish, Y. Mohebi, M. & Negahdari, E. (2021). "The Prediction of the Relationship between Moral Corruption, Sanctions and Economic Fluctuations on Foreign Direct Investment in Iran", Macroeconomics Research Letter, 15(30), 232-251. (in Persian)
- Smith, Susan J. (2012). "International Encyclopedia of Housing and Home". Elsevier Science.
- Somerville, C.T. (1999). "Residential Construction Costs and the Supply of New Housing. Endogeneity and Bias in Construction Cost Indexes". Journal of Real Estate Financeand Economics.18(1), 43- 62.
- Soori, A. (2014). "Getting out of the recession and the role of the housing sector", Housing economy, 50:97-113.(In Persian).
- Soori, A. R. Heydari, H. & Afzali, H. (2011). "Investigating the relationship between demand and supply side variables affecting the housing sector on housing prices in Iran", economic research, 12:113-140.(In Persian).
- Tadini Kazrouni, A & Tavakoli, N.(2011). "Sanction developments in the light of the fundamental developments of recent decades", Political and international approaches, 26:91-114.(In Persian).
- Taherpour, J. (2017). "The effects of the JCPOA on the monetary and financial sphere of the country, Presidential Strategic Research Center". http://css.ir/xopnik.(In Persian).
- Tayibi, S. K. & Sadeghi, A. R. (2017). "Effects of international sanctions and other factors affecting the exchange rate in Iran", Economic Research Quarterly, 3:641-661.(In Persian).
- Teshkini, A. (2014). "Applied econometrics with the help of Microfit", Noor Alam Publications.(In Persian).
- Wang, Y., Wang, K., & Chang, C. P. (2019). "The impacts of economic sanctions on exchange rate volatility". Economic Modelling, 82, 58-65.
- Wasfi Asfestani, Sh. Abolhasani Hastiani, A. Shaygani, B. & Amini Milani, M. (2022). "Investigation of the effects of trade sanctions on Iran's economy using the calculable general equilibrium method: with an emphasis on production and prices", Economic Research and Policy Quarterly, 103:7-47.(In Persian).
- Zamani, O. Farzanegan, M. Loy, J. P. & Einian, M. (2021). "The Impacts of Energy Sanctions on the Black-Market Premium: Evidence from Iran". Economics Bulletin, 41(2), 432-443.
- Ziari, K. Pourahmad, A. Hataminejad, H. & mohamadi, A. (2016). "Housing Planning for Urban Low-Income Groups with an Emphasis on Their Financial Capabilities and Housing Line of Poverty in Urban Population of Kurdistan Province", Researches of human geography, 96:211-226.(In Persian).
- Ziari, S. Farhodi, R. Pourahmad, A & Hataminejad, H. (2018)."Patterns for Providing Low Income Groups with Housing (Case Study: Karaj City)", Researches of human geography, 102:869-883.(In Persian).
- Factors affecting the production and supply of housing under the influence of exchange rates and sanction.