Identifying and Prioritizing Factors Affecting the Probability of Social Security Retirement with the Delphi and Fuzzy Dimtel approach
Subject Areas : Economic
Jafar abrishambaf
1
*
,
حسن قدرتی
2
,
hosein panahian
3
,
Meytham Arabzadeh
4
,
Hossein jabbary
5
1 - Doctoral student of the Department of Industrial Management - Finance, Kashan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kashan, Iran
2 - Assistant Professor, Department of Management, Faculty of Accounting and Management, Islamic Azad University, Kashan Branch, Iran
3 - Full Professor of Financial Management, Faculty of Accounting and Management, Islamic Azad University, Kashan Branch, Iran
4 - Assistant Professor, Department of Accounting, Kashan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kashan, Iran
5 - Assistant Professor, Department of Accounting, Kashan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kashan, Iran
Keywords: Retirement probability, normal parameters, abnormal parameters, social security.,
Abstract :
Many countries, including industrialized and developed countries, adjust their social security and pension programs to reduce government spending and increase the active workforce. Such reforms directly affect government spending and participation decisions. The purpose of the current research was to identify and prioritize the factors affecting the probability of retirement with the Fuzzy Dimetal approach. The current research was based on a survey research design with a descriptive-inductive inference method, and it was quantitative in terms of the nature of the data and the method of analysis. The statistical population of the current research was university professors, trustees and specialists in social security affairs in 1402. In this research, in connection with the statistical community of experts, 14 experts were selected by snowball method. In order to fulfill the goals and answer the research questions, this research has been done in two main phases. In the first stage, by reviewing the literature and evaluating the results of the studies, the ground has been prepared for the comprehensive identification and extraction of factors and sub-factors affecting the probability of retirement and their classification. In the following, in order to screen the identified variables, the Delphi technique was used and by surveying experts, by analyzing the field of knowledge and analyzing the content of retirement evaluation metrics and identifying the factors affecting it, and by using a persuasive Delphi survey of experts and applying Dimitl's fuzzy multi-criteria analysis model, two normal and abnormal parameters and education, age and age group, financial factors and physical and mental health were among the most important factors affecting the possibility of people's retirement. Based on the results obtained from the fuzzy Delphi analysis, finally sixteen factors affecting retirement among the effective factors according to the experts, including education level, gender, illness, disability, psychological factor, spouse's employment, business free, rest and recreation, part-time job, type of work (hard and harmful), work pressure, job satisfaction, low salary and benefits, working time and place conditions, employee income and retirement benefits. Finally, the importance assessment, ranking and refinement of indicators and factors affecting retirement based on the multi-criteria approach of Dimtel Fazi led to the finalization of two normal and abnormal indicators and six factors of working years and age (normal indicators), long illness, dismissal, from Disability and desertion (abnormal parameters) were identified as the most important factors affecting the possibility of people's retirement.
- منابع
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