بررسی تاثیر پیچیدگی و رشد اقتصادی بر انتشار گاز دی اکسید کربن (مطالعه موردی: کشور ایران)
محورهای موضوعی :
سیدکمال صادقی
1
(دانشگاه تبریز)
محمد اره کش سلماسی
2
(دانشجوی دکتری دانشگاه تبریز )
کلید واژه: کلمات کلیدی: پیچیدگی اقتصادی, رشد اقتصادی, انتشارگاز دی اکسیدکربن, کشورایران,
چکیده مقاله :
هدف از این مقاله بررسی رابطه منحنی کوزنتس محیطی (EKC)و شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی (ECI) به عنوان عنصر متمایز کننده حجم تولید برای کشور ایران است.برای بررسی رابطه بین متغیرها از مدل اصلاح خطای بردار(VECM) برای دوره زمانی 1389-1399 با تکنیکهای حداقل مربعات پویا،حداقل مربعات اصلاح شده،آزمون همجمعی و آزمون جوهانسون استفاده شد. برای بررسی عوامل موثر بر انتشار گاز دی اکسید کربن،از متغیرهای سنتی که داده های منحنی کوزنتس محیطی رابین سالهای 1389-1399 نشان می دهد استفاده شده است.این متغیرها عبارتند از تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه،جمعیت شهری،مصرف برق(کیلووات ساعت سرانه)،سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی،واردات و صادرات کالا و خدمات(درصد تولید ناخالص داخلی) که از مرکز آمار ایران ،سازمان محیط زیست و بانک مرکزی تهیه شده است..برای بدست آوردن پیچیدگی اقتصادی(ECI) از مدل پیشنهادی هیدالگو و هاوس مان (2009) استفاده شد.نتایج تحقیق نشان می دهد پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر انتشار گاز دی اکسید کربن تاثیری ندارد اما افزایش تولید و مصرف انرژی و افزایش صادرات و کاهش واردات بر انتشار گاز دی اکسید کربن موثر است.همچنین بین افزایش درآمد سرانه،سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی و انتشار گاز دی اکسید کربن رابطه معنی داری یافت نشد.طبق نتایج تحقیق پیشنهاد می شود از انرژیهای تجدیدپذیر در تولید استفاده شود و قوانین صادراتی و وارداتی برمبنای کاهش مخاطرات زیست محیطی باشد.
Sadeghi SeyyedKamal Arrekesh Salmasi Mohammad Abstract The purpose of this article is to investigate the relationship between the Environmental Couzens Curve (EKC) and the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) as a differentiating element of the production volume for Iran. To investigate the relationship between the variables of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for the period of 2019-2020 Dynamic least squares, modified least squares, collinearity test and Johanson test were used. In order to investigate the factors affecting the emission of carbon dioxide gas, the traditional variables shown by the environmental Kuznets curve data of 1389-1399 have been used. These variables include GDP per capita, urban population, electricity consumption (kilowatt hours per capita), foreign direct investment, import and export of goods and services (percentage of gross domestic product) which was prepared from Iran Statistics Center, Environmental Organization and Central Bank... to obtain economic complexity (ECI) from the model proposed by Hidalgo and House Mann (2009) was used. The research results show that economic complexity has no effect on carbon dioxide emissions, but increasing production and energy consumption and increasing exports and decreasing imports are effective on carbon dioxide emissions. Also, between increasing per capita income, capital No significant relationship was found between foreign direct investment and carbon dioxide emissions. According to the research results, it is suggested to use renewable energy in production and export and import laws should be based on reducing environmental risks.
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